Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.350306 1.418156 1.488346 1.566542 1.651419 1.740980 1.842909
2025-11-02 1.242181 1.337752 1.440667 1.560350 1.696500 1.847523 2.029061
2025-11-09 1.162588 1.272270 1.393489 1.538531 1.708895 1.904624 2.149441
2025-11-16 1.100371 1.219189 1.353187 1.517187 1.714877 1.948699 2.251207
2025-11-23 1.059743 1.186990 1.333081 1.515542 1.740746 2.014408 2.380017
2025-11-30 1.030942 1.166133 1.323895 1.524656 1.778004 2.093921 2.529437
2025-12-07 0.992382 1.131230 1.295358 1.507379 1.779795 2.126803 2.617980
2025-12-14 0.952836 1.093135 1.260770 1.480067 1.766181 2.137391 2.675133
2025-12-21 0.922954 1.065469 1.237542 1.465458 1.767378 2.166405 2.758297
2025-12-28 0.908325 1.055863 1.236095 1.478180 1.804479 2.245025 2.916944
2026-01-04 0.888263 1.038536 1.223921 1.475897 1.820609 2.294718 3.035830
2026-01-11 0.876324 1.030889 1.223574 1.488828 1.857607 2.375256 3.207014
2026-01-18 0.857735 1.014615 1.212043 1.487000 1.874987 2.430050 3.345555
2026-01-25 0.838953 0.997491 1.198766 1.482145 1.887670 2.478480 3.478087
2026-02-01 0.815351 0.973308 1.175228 1.461960 1.876888 2.490296 3.549927
2026-02-08 0.793324 0.950526 1.152768 1.442265 1.865618 2.500235 3.618668
2026-02-15 0.779433 0.938017 1.143606 1.440746 1.880852 2.551915 3.764423
2026-02-22 0.769993 0.931074 1.141631 1.449160 1.911067 2.628811 3.962689
2026-03-01 0.752286 0.912579 1.123276 1.433208 1.903199 2.643113 4.045651
2026-03-08 0.732127 0.890308 1.099121 1.407976 1.879823 2.630296 4.075291
2026-03-15 0.716955 0.874424 1.083369 1.394469 1.874044 2.646379 4.162478
2026-03-22 0.711115 0.871026 1.084811 1.406231 1.908357 2.732244 4.397740
2026-03-29 0.700913 0.861389 1.077190 1.404121 1.920252 2.779820 4.559379